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海洋卫士压载水

德路里:新冠病毒对集运业意味着什么?

2020-03-05 15:18:00
来源:德路里Drewry 编辑: 国际船舶网 我有话要说

XINGUANBINGDUYIQINGZAIDUANQIDUIQUANQIUJIZHUANGXIANGYUNLIANGHEHANGYUNGONGSIYINGLIZAOCHENGJUDADAJI,DANDELULI(Drewry)YUCE,ZHIYAOYIQINGDEYIKONGZHI,ZHONGQIYINGXIANGSHIKEKONGDE。

JIZHUANGXIANGHANGYUNGONGSIYIJINGXIQUJIAOXUN,XUEHUILERUHEYINGDUITUFAQINGKUANG。WULUNSHIMAOYIZHAN、ZHONGYAOGANGKOUGUANBIHAISHIXINYIQING,YINGDUIGEZHONGGANRAOYICHENGWEIXINCHANGTAI。DANSHIJISHANGZHEIXIEHANGYUNGONGSIMIANDUIDEZHUANGKUANGZAIYIDINGCHENGDUSHANGBUKEKONG,TAMENZAIJIEJUEZHEIXIEQINGKUANGFANGMIANDENENGLIYOUXIAN。

pc蛋蛋登录BIAO1:XINGUANBINGDUYIQINGZHUANGKUANG(JIEZHIOUZHOUZHONGBUSHIJIAN2020NIAN3YUE3RISHANGWU10SHI)

LAIYUAN:SHIJIEWEISHENGZUZHI(WHO)

MUQIAN,XINGUANBINGDUYIQINGDUIJIZHUANGXIANGSHICHANGDEYINGXIANGHAIKEYICHENGSHOU,DANRUGUOYIQINGZHANGQICHIXUHEGUANGFANCHUANBO,DUIJIYUNYEDEYINGXIANGWUYIJIANGGENGWEIJULIE。ZHONGGUOYIWAIXINBINGLIDEJIZENG(JIANTU1),TEBIESHIZAIYIDALIHEYILANG。YINCIYIQINGHENKUAIJIESHUDEKENENGXINGBUDA。

TU1:XINGUANBINGDULEIJIBINGLI

pc蛋蛋登录LAIYUAN:SHIJIEWEISHENGZUZHI(WHO)

短期冲击

JIZHUANGXIANGYUNSHUBUXIANGHANGKONGYEHUOLVYOUYENEIYANGSHOUDAOGUANZHUANGBINGDUYINGXIANGERLIMADAFUXIADIE,DANSHIDUANQIYINGXIANGTONGYANGFEICHANGMINGXIAN:

DELULI(Drewry)TONGGUODUIZHONGGUOGANGKOUYUNYINGSHANGDECAIFANGLEJIEDAO,CONG1YUE20RIDAO2YUE10RIDESANZHOUNEI,TUNTULIANGXIAJIANGLE20-40%。

pc蛋蛋登录QITAYIXIEGONGSIDECHUANBOGENZONGSHUJUYEFANYINGLELEISIDEXIAJIANGQINGKUANG。

pc蛋蛋登录CHULEZHONGGUODEGANGKOUTUNTULIANGCHUXIANXIAJIANGDEQINGKUANG,SHOUYIQINGDECHIXUYINGXIANGHECHUANBO,QITAGUOJIADEGANGKOUYEZHUJIANKAISHICHUXIANTUNTULIANGXIAJIANGDEQINGKUANG。(MEIGUOLUOSHANJIGANGFUZERENBIAOSHI,LUOSHANJIGANGERYUEYUNLIANGXIAJIANG20%)

pc蛋蛋登录JINZAI2YUE,HANGYUNGONGSIJIUQUXIAOLEYUE105TIAOCONGYAZHOUDAOBEIMEI、OUZHOU/DIZHONGHAIDIQUHANGXIANDEHANGCI。

ZHONGGUOJIZHUANGXIANGTUNTULIANGZHANQUANQIUDE30%,CHUFEIZHEIZHONGXIAJIANGNENGZAIZHIHOUDEDAOMIBU,FOUZEXIAJIANG30%YIWEIZHEQUANQIUJIZHUANGXIANGTUNTULIANGJIANGJIANSHAO9%(30%x 30%= 9%)。DANSHI,QUANQIUGANGKOUTUNTULIANGZHISHAOHUIXIAJIANG2GEYUE。

pc蛋蛋登录MEIYUEQUXIAO105GEHANGCIYIWEIZHESUNSHIYUE10YIMEIYUANDESHOURU(105 x 10,000teu x 1,000MEIYUAN),JINGUANZHIHOUTONGGUOYUNLIANGTISHENGKEYIMIBUYIXIESUNSHI,DANDUIHANGYUNGONGSIZAIDUANQINEIDEYINGSHOUYINGXIANGHENDA。

未来走势

YIQINGFAZHANDEBUQUEDINGXINGYIWEIZHEQUANQIUJINGJIYIJIJIZHUANGXIANGHANGYUNHUICHUXIANDUOZHONGKENENGDEQINGKUANG,LEGUANQINGKUANGXIA,QUANQIUJINGJIKUAISUHUIFUBINGYINGXIANGKEKONG,BEIGUANQINGKUANGXIA,YIQINGDAOZHIDALIANGSIWANGBINGLIBINGTANHUANQUANQIUJINGJI。

pc蛋蛋登录DELULI(Drewry)MEIGEJIDUDOUHUIZAI《JIZHUANGXIANGHANGYUNYUCEBAOGAO》ZHONGFABUMUQIANDESHICHANGZHUANGKUANGJIDUIWEILAIDEYUCE。WOMENRENWEI,JINNIANBAOFADEFEIDIAN(SARS)、ZHONGDONGHUXIZONGHEZHENG(MERS)HEAIBOLA(Ebola)DENGYIQINGYOUZUGOUDELISHIZHENGJUBIAOMING,XINGUANBINGDUYIQINGNENGGOUHENKUAIDEDAOKONGZHI,HUOZHEZHISHAORANGWOMENDUIQILEJIEGENGWEISHENRU。ZONGTIERYAN,YIQINGZAOCHENGDEJIEGUOBUHUISHIZAINANXINGDE(JIANXIABIAO)。

pc蛋蛋登录BIAO2:DELULI(Drewry)JIUXINGUANYIQINGDUIJIZHUANGXIANGSHICHANGKENENGDEYINGXIANGDEQINGXINGYUCE

LAIYUAN:DELULIHANGYUNYANJIU

HUOZHUHEHANGYUNGONGSIPOQIEXIWANGDANGQIANDEWENTIXUNSUDEDAOJIEJUE,ZHONGGUOGONGCHANGHUIFUSHENGCHAN。BUKEBIMIANDESHI,2020NIANDIYIJIDUQUANQIUGANGKOUTUNTULIANGJIANGDAFUWEISUO,DANXIANZAIWENTISHI,SHIFOUKEYIQIWANGZAIJINNIANWANXIESHIHOUCHUXIANDAFUHUIFUHUOWANQUANHUIFU?

pc蛋蛋登录ZAIZHONGGUOYIWAIDEYIQINGJIAZHONGQIAN,JINGJIXUEJIAMENCENGYUCEZHONGGUOGDPZENGZHANGJIANGXIAJIANG0.2%DAO0.8%。LIRU,JINGJIXUERENZHIKU(EIU)ZAI2YUE12RIXUANBU,JIANGQIZHONGGUODEGDPJIZHUNYUCECONG5.9%XIADIAOZHI5.4%,GAIYUCEKAOLVLEYOUYUZHONGGUOZHENGFUJIANGTUICHUGEXIANGCAIZHENGCIJIJIHUAERZHONGZHENJINGJICONGERSHIZHONGGUOJINGJICONG2020NIANDIERJIDUKAISHIQIANGJINGFANDAN。

pc蛋蛋登录DANSHI,YIQINGDEXUNSUBIANHUAYEYIWEIZHECIQIANDEDADUOSHUJINGJIMAOYIYUCEJIANGHENKUAISHIQUSHIXIAOXING,BIXUZHONGXINPINGGU。YINCI,CONGBUTONGDEQINGXINGLAIKAOLVWEILAIKENENGCHUXIANDEHONGGUANJIEGUOHUOXUGENGWEIYOUYI。JIYUCI,DELULI(Drewry)TICHULESANZHONGKENENGDEQINGXINGYIJIDUIJIYUNYEDEYINGXIANG,MUQIANWOMENDEJIZHUNYUCEWEIQINGXINGB。

QINGXINGA(LEGUANQINGXING)

pc蛋蛋登录GAIQINGXINGCENGSHIWOMENCIQIANDEJIZHUNYUCE,DANZUIJINZAIZHONGGUOJINGWAIBUDUANSHENGJIDEXINGUANBINGDUYIQING,RANGWOMENKAISHIZHONGXINPINGGUJIZHUNQINGXING,XIANRANMUQIANDEJIZHUNQINGXINGJIAOZHIQIANGENGBULEGUAN。DANGAILEGUANQINGXINGRENGRANSHIKENENGCHUXIANDE,YINWEIZHONGGUOJINGWAIBINGLIDEQUEZHENSHUJUKENENGCUNZAITONGJIBODONG。LINGWAI,TONGYANGYOUKENENG,XINGUANBINGDUYUJIJIEXINGLIUGANYIYANG,ZAITIANQIBIANNUANHOU,JIANGDEDAOKONGZHI。

JISHIZAIZHEIZHONGZUILEGUANDEQINGKUANGXIA,JIZHUANGXIANGSHICHANGYEYIDINGHUISHOUDAOCHONGJI。JINGUANCHUWUHANWAI,SUOYOUZHONGGUOGANGKOUJUNBAOCHIKAIFANG,DANYOUYULVXINGXIANZHIHEFANGKONGCUOSHIERDAOZHIRENYUANDUANQUE,GANGKOUBINGWEIHUIFUZHENGCHANGYUNYING。GONGCHANGTINGGONGDEYANZHANGYEXIANZHILEYUNWANGZHEIXIEGANGKOUDEHUOWULIUDONG。ZUIZHONGGONGBUMEIYUEGANGKOUTUNTULIANGSHUJUSHI,WUYIJIANGCHUXIANYANZHONGXIAHUA。

JISHIZHONGGUOZHENGFUCHUTAIXIANGYINGDECIJIJIHUA,CONG2020NIANDIERJIDUKAISHICIJIGENGDUODEJIZHUANGXIANGYUNSHU,DANYEKENENGBUZUYIMIBU2020NIANDIYIJIDUYILAISUOYOUSUNSHI,WOMENYUJIQUANQIUGANGKOUDENIANTUNTULIANGJIAOQUNIANXIADIAODAYUE3%。

WEILAI,DANGHUOYUNXUQIUHUISHENGSHI,ZHONGGUOCHUKOUDEYUNFEIKENENGHUIZAICHUQIBIAOSHENG。YUNFEISHANGZHANGDECHIXUSHIJIANJIANGQUJUEYUCHANNENGDEHUIFUQINGKUANG。

TU2 YAZHOU-BEIOUJIZHUANGXIANGQUXIAOHANGCIQINGKUANG

pc蛋蛋登录LAIYUAN:DELULIHAIYUNJIKONGYUNHUOZHUBAOGAO:TINGHANGQINGKUANGGENZONG

GENJUZUIXINDE《DELULIHAIYUNJIKONGYUNHUOZHUBAOGAO》ZHONGDETINGHANGQINGKUANGSHUJU,JINZAIYAZHOU-BEIOUHANGXIAN,2020NIAN2YUEDETINGHANGSHULIANGCONG2019NIAN2YUEDE12GESHANGSHENGDAO32GE。

SHICHANGSHANGKENENGXUYAOEWAIHANGCILAICHULIJIYADEHUOWU,DANSHIYOUYUZHONGGUOZAOCHUANCHANGDETINGGONGJIANGYANCHIYIXIEXINCHUANJIAOFU,YINCISHICHANGKENENGBUHUIYOUZUGOUBEIYONGYUNLI。CIWAI,CHUANDONGJIANGXIWANGCHUANCHANGZHONGQIFANGYIQIJIANTINGZHIDETUOLIUTAANZHUANGGONGZUO。DANGHUOWUXUQIUZHONGXINTIZHENSHI,LINSHIDEYUNLIDUANQUEHUITUIDONGYUNFEISHANGZHANG。

pc蛋蛋登录WULUNJIEGUORUHE,XINGUANYIQINGDOUBAOLULEGUODUYILAIDANYIZHIZAOLAIYUANDEQUANQIUGONGYINGLIANDECUIRUOXING。WOMENYUJIHUOZHUWEIBAOXIANQIJIAN,JIANGKUODAQICAIGOULAIYUAN。

QINGXINGB(JIZHUNQINGXING)

pc蛋蛋登录WOMENZUOCHUMUQIANJIZHUNYUCEDEBUFENYIJUSHI,ZHONGGUODEQUEZHENBINGLIDERIZENGZHANGLVZHENGZAIFANGHUAN,ZHEIBIAOMINGGELIFANGFAZHENGZAIZOUXIAO。ZHEIZENGJIALEZHONGGUOZAI2020NIANDIERJIDUZHIQIANHUIFUZHENGCHANGJINGJIHUODONGDEKENENGXING,DANSHISUIZHEQIMAOYIHUOBANGUODEYIQINGKAISHISHENGJI(XINZENGBINGLIZENGZHANGLVTIGAO),WENTIHENKENENGHUICONGGONGYINGLIANYIDUANZHUANYIDAOQITADUAN,YOUQISHIDANGXINGUANBINGDUYIQINGZAIOUZHOUHEBEIMEIZHEIXIEZHUYAOXIAOFEIZHONGXINKUOSAN。

JINGUANYIXIEGUOJIAHUIBIQITAGUOJIAZAIYINGDUIYIQINGFANGMIANZHUNBEIGENGCHONGFEN,DANSHISUIZHEGAIBINGDUXIANGXIFANGGUOJIAKUOSAN,MINZHONGKONGJUCHENGDUZIRANSHANGSHENG,XIAOFEIZHEXINXINJIANGHUISHOUDAODAJI。SHANGDAIGUANCHAQITAGUOJIASHIFOUHUIXIAOFANGZHONGGUOYINRUYANGEDEFANGYICUOSHI(YIDALIMOUXIECHENGSHIYIJINGSHIXING),ZHEIXIECUOSHIKENENGHUIDAOZHILEISIDEGONGYINGLIANSHOUZU。

pc蛋蛋登录RUGUOBINGDUXIANGZHONGGUOYIWAIKUOSAN,SIHUYOUBIYAOZAICIDIAOZHENGJINGJIYUCE,QIYANZHONGCHENGDUQUJUEYUYIQINGCHUANBOFANWEIHESHOUYINGXIANGGUOJIAKONGZHIYIQINGDENENGLI。

ZHEIXIEGUOJIAYOUXIAOKONGZHIDESHIJIANYUEZHANG,JIUHUIWEISHIJIEWEISHENGZUZHI(WHO)DENGJIGOUZHAODAOJIEJUEFANGFATIGONGGENGDUOSHIJIAN。GAIZUZHIQUNIANKAISHIYANJIUKENENGDAOZHIGONGGONGWEISHENGJINJIQINGKUANGDEYIWAIBINGYUANTI,JISUOWEIDE“JIBINGX”。ZAIJINNIANLAIQITAYIQINGBAOFAZHIHOU,RUJINYINGGAIJINXINGGENGDAFANWEIDEHEZUOYIJIAKUAIYIMIAODEYANFA,JINGUANZHUANJIATIXING,YIMIAODELINCHUANGYANZHENGXUYAOJIGEYUESHIJIAN。

YIQINGMANYANHECHUANBOYUEGUANGFAN,CHIXUSHIJIANYUEZHANG,JINNIANJIZHUANGXIANGSHICHANGNENGSHIXIANZENGZHANGDEKENENGXINGJIUYUEXIAO,ERQUANQIUJINGJIPIRUANHUISHIGENGDUOXUQIUSHOUDAOYIZHI,SHI2021NIANDEFUSUGENGWEIPIRUAN。

ZAIZHEIZHONGQINGKUANGXIA,HANGYUNGONGSIBIEWUXUANZE,ZHINENGYANZHANGQIYUNLIXUEJIANJIHUA,JIDUANQINGKUANGXIA,CHUZENGJIATINGHANGWAI,HANGYUNGONGSIHAIHUIKAOLVCAIQUQITACUOSHI,LIRUYUNLIXIANZHIHEDALIANGCHAICHUAN。WOMENYUJI,YUNJIABUHUIXIANGQINGXINGANEIYANGCONGHUOYUNGAOFENGZHONGSHOUYI,ERSHIHUIJIXUXIAJIANG,ZHIDAOQINGKUANGHUANJIEWEIZHI,ZHEIJIANGDUIHANGYUNGONGSIDESHOUYIZAOCHENGJUDAYALI。

QINGXINGC(BEIGUANQINGXING)

JINGUANZHONGGUOXINZENGQUEZHENBINGLIDEXIAJIANGQUSHIZHICHENGLEWOMENDEJIBENYUCE,DANZHONGGUOGUANFANGTONGJISHUJUCUNZAIYIXIEZHENGYI。MUQIANZHONGGUOZHENGZAIHUANMANFUGONGFUCHAN,SUIZHERENMENKAISHIJUJIBINGZAICIZIYOUCHUXING,BEIGUANQINGXINGXIA,ZHONGGUODEBINGLIJIANGZAICIJIZENG,ZHONGGUOHUIZAICIZHONGQIYANGEDEFANGYICUOSHICONGERDAOZHISHENGCHANZHONGDUAN。

pc蛋蛋登录RUGUOYIQINGZAIZHONGGUOYIWAIDALIANGCHUANBO,NEIMEMAOYIDESHENGCHANHEXIAOFEILIANGDUANDOUJIANGSHOUZU,YINGJIJIHUAYEHENNANCAIYONG。

pc蛋蛋登录JINGUANZHEIZHONGBEIGUANQINGXINGWOMENBUYUANKANDAO,CHUXIANZHEIZHONGQINGXINGDEKENENGXINGZAISANZHONGQINGXINGZHONGYESHIZUIXIAODE,DANJIYUMUQIANYIQINGFAZHANDETAISHIHEDUIBINGDUDEWEIZHI,WOMENWUFAWANQUANHULVEZHEIZHONGQINGXING。

pc蛋蛋登录ZHEIZHONGQINGXINGXIA,QUANQIUJINGJIHENKENENGHUICHUXIANSHUAITUI,JIZHUANGXIANGYUNLIANGKENENGXIANZHUJIANSHAO。JIESHI,WOMENYUJIYUNJIAJIANGCHIXUXIAJIANG,HANGYUNGONGSIPOCHANDEFENGXIANJIANGZENGJIA。WEILEBIMIANZHEIYANGDEQIANJING,HANGYUNGONGSIYINGGAIZHONGXINSHENSHISHINIANQIANJINRONGWEIJIDEQINGXING,BINGTONGGUOYUNLIXIANZHIHECHAICHUANDAGUIMOJIANSHAOYUNLIYIJIANSHAOYINGXIANG。

Drewry观点

SHOUXINGUANYIQINGYINGXIANG,JIZHUANGXIANGSHICHANGJIANGNANMIANZAOSHOUZHONGCHUANG,DANMUQIANCUNZAITAIDUOBUQUEDINGXING,WUFAZHUNQUEDIYUCEZHIHOUDEFAZHANTAISHI。XINWEIDESHI,SUIZHEDUIBINGDUDESHENRULEJIE,GEGUOKENENGHUIZHAODAOJIBAOHUGONGGONGJIANKANGYOUBAOHUJINGJIDECUOSHI。

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