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海洋卫士压载水

油运市场:上行趋势确定,幅度有待验证

2020-01-22 19:12:22
来源:中国远洋海运e刊 编辑: 国际船舶网 我有话要说

关键提示

YUNJIAYUCE:YOUYUZHANGZHOUQISHUJUWUCHAJIAODA,2015NIANVLCC TCEJUNZHI64846MEIYUAN/TIAN,WOMENTONGGUOJISUAN2015NIANHOUDEGONGXUGAISHANFUDULAIPANDUANYUNJIA。

1.ZHONGXINGQINGXING:SHANGSHUQINGXINGJUNBUFASHENG,2019-2021NIANXIANGBI2015NIANGONGXUFENBIEGAISHAN0.16%、4%、6%,DUIYING2020-2021NIANVLCC TCEJUNZHIFENBIEWEI65000、90000MEIYUAN/TIAN。

2.LEGUANQINGXING:ZHONGMEILVXINGDIYIJIEDUANJINGMAOXIEYI,HUOQUANQIUXUQIUCHAOYUQI,XIANGBIZHONGXINGQINGXINGEWAIGAISHAN1%-3%,DUIYING2020-2021NIANVLCC TCEJUNZHIFENBIEDA100000MEIYUAN/TIAN、100000MEIYUAN/TIAN。

pc蛋蛋登录3.BEIGUANQINGXING:BUFENZHICAIJIECHU,HUOJINGJIDIMIQUANQIUYUANYOUJINRUQUKUCUNZHOUQI,XIANGBIZHONGXINGQINGXINGQURUO1%-3%。YUJI2020-2021NIANVLCC TCE JUNZHIFENBIEWEI35000MEIYUAN/TIAN、40000MEIYUAN/TIAN。

pc蛋蛋登录YUJI2020-2021NIANVLCC TCE JUNZHIFENBIEWEI35000MEIYUAN/TIAN、40000MEIYUAN/TIAN。2019NIANYILAI,YOULUNYUNJIAJIGUJIAZAIWAIWEIHUANJINGBUQUEDING、JINGJIXIAXINGDENGYALIXIACHIXUSHANGZHANG。

需求

美国油出口核心驱动

限硫令带来额外需求增量

YUANYOUXIAOHAOLIANGJUYOURENXING,BODONGZHUYAOYOUKUCUNZHOUQIYINFA。2010NIANHOU,YUANYOUXIAOHAOZENGSUFEICHANGWENDING,ZAI1.2%-2%ZHIJIANBODONG。YUANYOUHAIYUNLIANG、XUQIULIANG、YIJIOPECCHANLIANGDEZENGSUYUANGAOYUYUANYOUXIAOHAOZENGSU,BEIHOUYUANYINZAIYUYUNJUYIJIKUCUNBODONG。OECDKUCUNZAI5NIANLISHIJUNZHIFUJIN,QUKUCUNFENGXIANJIAODI,YUANYOUHAIYUNXUQIUJUYOURENXING。

YUNJUFANGDAXIAOYING,BIANJIXINZENGXUQIUWEIZHANGYUNJU。2019YU2017NIANXIANGBIYUANYOUHAIYUNLIANGZENGJIA44.4WANTONG/TIAN,MEIGUOYUANYOUCHUKOUZENGJIA186WANTONG/TIAN,GONGXIANZONGCHUKOUZENGLIANGDE319%。YAZHOUYUANYOUJINKOUZENGJIA157WANTONG/TIAN,GONGXIANZONGJINKOUZENGLIANGDE254%,ZAIMEIGUOCHUKOUTIDAIZHONGDONGDEDAQUSHIXIA,BIANJIZENGLIANGJUNWEIZHANGYUNJU。

MEIGUOYUANYOUCHUKOUZHANCHANLIANGDEBILIBUDAO30%,YINGXIANGMEIGUOYUANYOUCHUKOUDEYINSUZHUYAOWEIMATOUHEGUANDAODENGJICHUSHESHI。2018NIANYILAI,MATOUHEGUANDAOJICHUSHESHILUXUSHENGJI。

pc蛋蛋登录(1)GUANDAOFANGMIAN:2019NIANDISANJIDUQIJINRUMIJIWANGONGQI,SHOUCIYINGXIANG,MEIGUOGUANDAOYUNLIANGCHIXUSHANGZHANG,8YUEMEIWANCONGZHONGXIBUYUANYOUCHANQUYUNSHUDEYUANYOUDA6609WANTONG,TONGBITIGAO60%。

pc蛋蛋登录(2)MATOUFANGMIAN:DANGQIANMEIWANJINLOOPMATOUKEYISHIXIANVLCCMANZAITINGKAO,CANZHAOPlattsSHUJU,Harbor Island, Corpus ChristiDENGMATOUDESHENGJIJIHUAYIJINGLUXUKAIGONG。2021NIANQIVLCCKAOBOXIAOLVJICHENGBENJIANGDAFUGAISHAN,JINYIBUCUJINMEIGUOYUANYOUCHUKOU。

pc蛋蛋登录XIANLIUXUQIULUOJIJINRUDUIXIANQI:2020NIAN,XINZENGDILIUYOUXUQIUXUYAOLIANCHANGEWAIZENGJIA100WANTONG/TIANDECHANNENG,DUIYINGHAIYUNXUQIU60WANTONG/TIAN。YUANYOUHAIYUNXUQIUCONG3.5%SHANGXINGZHI5%。

TU9:XIANLIULINGXUQIULUOJI

pc蛋蛋登录ZILIAOLAIYUAN:Clarksons,SHENWANHONGYUANYANJIU

pc蛋蛋登录ZONGHEYISHANG,2019NIANSHOUMEIGUOZENGCHANTIDAIOPECJIANCHANYINGXIANG,YUANYOUHAIYUNMAOYIZENGSUWEI-0.4%,DANSHOUYUNJULAZHANGYINGXIANG,ZHOUZHUANLIANGZENGSURENGYOU1.9%。2020NIANWOMENYUJI:

pc蛋蛋登录(1)ZAIJINKOUGUOYUANYOUKUCUNWENDING,DILIUYOUDAILAIEWAIXUQIUZHONG,YUJIQUANQIUYUANYOUXUQIUZENGJIA1.3%,DUIYING130WANTONG,QIZHONGHAIYUNXUQIUZENGJIA110WANTONG/TIAN,ZENGZHANG2.7%。

(2)ZAIJINGZENGLIANGYOUMEIGUOCHUKOUGONGXIANQIEMEIYUANYOUMAOYIBUHUIFUDEJICHUSHANG,YUANYOUPINGJUNYUNJUZENGZHANG2.1%,DUIYINGYUANYOUZHOUZHUANLIANGXUQIUZENGZHANG4.8%。

(3)KAOLVDAOZHANGYUNJUVLCCSHOUYIZUIDUO,CANZHAOKELAKESENGUJI,YUJI2020NIANVLCCXUQIUZENGZHANG5.7%。

pc蛋蛋登录(4)2021NIAN,ANZHAOMEIGUOYUANYOUCHUKOUWEICHIZENGZHANG100WANTONGSHUIPINGCESUAN,VLCCXUQIUYOUWANGWEICHIZAI5.7%。

供给

交付高峰结束

船舶加速老龄化

新船订单持续下滑

pc蛋蛋登录GONGJIDUANZUIHEXINZHIBIAO——XINCHUANDINGDANZHANBIHAOYU2004NIANZHOUQIQIDONGSHUIPING。FUPANLISHIZHOUQI,GAODIANLEIJIDINGDANPILIANGJIAOFUSHIHAIYUNXIAXINGZHOUQIZUIZHUYAOYUANYIN,DANGQIANGONGJIYALIXIAOYU2004NIANTONGQI。

(1)JIAOFUGAOFENGJIESHU,DANGQIANVLCCXINCHUANZAIJIANDINGDANZHANBIYICONG15NIANJIEJIN20%SHUIPINGXIAHUAZHI9%,2004NIANWEI18%,GONGJIYALIDIYU2004NIANDAZHOUQIQIDONGSHUIPING。

TU10:20 04NIANYUNJIAPO10WANMEIYUAN/TIANHOU,RENGYOU3NIANYISHANGGAISHANKONGJIAN,YUDANGQIANSHIJIANDIANLEISI,DANGUZHIGAOYUDANGQIANSHUIPING

pc蛋蛋登录ZILIAOLAIYUAN:  Clarksons,SHENWANHONGYUANYANJIU

(2)XINZAOCHUANCONGDINGZAODAOJIAOFUXUYAO2-3NIANSHIJIAN,DUANQIGONGJIZENGSUQUEDINGXIAHUA。WOMENLAQULE2002-2018NIANJIAOFUDEVLCCDECHUANBODANGANSHUJU,JIANZAOSHIJIANANJIAOFUSHIJIAN-XINQIANSHIJIANTONGJI,JIANZAOSHIJIANPINGJUNWEI2.8NIAN。JISHIDUANQIXINZAOCHUANDAZHANG,2NIANNEIDUIYUNLIWUMINGXIANYINGXIANG。

pc蛋蛋登录(3)ZHANGQIGONGJIRENGJIANGSHOUXIAN,XINZENGCHANNENGNANYIDAFUZENGZHANG。WOMENRENWEIZAIZAOCHUANCHANNENGSHOUSUO,HUANBAOYUESHUQUYAN,LNGDONGLICHUANBOJISHUSHANGBUCHENGSHU,CHUANGONGSIZICHANFUZHAIBIAOSHANGWEIXIUFUDEBEIJINGXIA,XINCHUANDINGDANNANYIDAFUZENGZHANG。XINCHUANDINGDANTONGBIDAFUXIAHUA,2019NIAN1-10YUE,VLCCXINCHUANDINGDAN12SOU,TONGBIXIAJIANG73%,YUANDIYU59SOUDEJIAOFUSHULIANG,JINYIBUYANZHENGWOMENDEGUANDIAN。

运价

旺季弹性测试完毕

距离景气位置并不遥远

ZAIGONGXUGAISHANQUERENDEJICHUSHANG,DANXINGYANZHENGZHIGUANZHONGYAO。ZUOCEJIEDUANTOUZIZHEDANXINGONGXUGAISHANCHUANDAODAOJIAGEBINGBUMINGXIAN。ZHOUQIDIBU,JIAGEDUIGONGXUBINGBUMINGAN,JINGQIZHOUQI,XIAOFUGONGXUGAISHANDUIJIAGEDEFANYINGJIQIMINGAN。

YUNJIAFUPAN,DANGQIANCHANNENGLIYONGLVJULIJINGQIDINGDIANBINGBUYAOYUAN。2019NIAN8YUEFEN,WOMENGENJUDANWANGJIGUILV,CHENGGONGYUPANLEBENLUNWANGJICHAOYUQIDEKENENG。FANSHI8YUEDANJIVLCC TCECHAO3WANMEIYUAN/TIANDENIANFEN,SHUOMINGDANJIGONGXUYIJINGCHUYUJINGQIWEIZHI,WANGJIHENRONGYICHAOYUQI,DADUOTUPO10WANMEIYUAN/TIAN。9YUEDIZHICAIHOUDECHAOJIWANGJI,BOJIAOSUO TCEGUJIATUPO30WAN,GAIGUILVBEIQUANMIANYANZHENG。SHOUZHICAIYUNLIZHANQUANQIUYUNLI3.3%,ZHICAIHOUYUNJIABAOZHANG,SHUOMINGCHANNENGLIYONGLVJULIJINGQIGAODIANBINGBUYAOYUAN。

pc蛋蛋登录ZILIAOLAIYUAN: Clarksons,SHENWANHONGYUANYANJIU

年度供需及运价预测

NIANDUZHENGTIYUCE: WOMENYUJI2020NIAN、2021NIANVLCCXUQIUZENGSUFENBIEWEI5.7%、5.7%,ZONGYUNLIZENGSUFENBIEWEI3%,0.7%,YOUXIAOYUNLIZENGZHANGFENBIEWEI1.6%、0.5%。

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